Archive for the 'Debate' Category

Fred Norman, like his counterpart Juan Berenguer, filled the role of fourth starter/spot reliever. In the day when four man rotations were more normal then five man rotations, the fourth starter was usually called upon to take on this dual role.

Norman had a pretty unspectactular career. He had solid seasons from 1974-1977, and was in the top six in strikeouts per nine innings in three of those four seasons. He ended his career just a touch above .500 with a 104-103 record, and was right around the league average in ERA (career ERA+ of 98).

In 1975, Norman ate up quite a few innings as the teams’ number four guy (188), and finished with the third best winning percentage in the National League with a 12-4 record (.750). He was 10th in the league in H/9, but suffered against the long ball and gave up his share of walks.

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Innings Pitched 188
Wins 12
Losses 4
ERA 3.73
ERA+ 96
WHIP 1.314
H/9 7.80
BB/9 4.02
SO/9 5.70
HR/9 1.10
Pitching Runs Above Replacement 28
Stuff 7

This might be the toughest one yet. In the more traditional categories, Norman did pretty well. He won one more game then Berenguer, lost six less, and threw almost twenty innings more. He also had a slightly better WHIP.

But Berenguer had a better ERA, a better strikeout rate, and a much better homerun rate. On top of that, Berenguer was worth 43 runs above replacement, in twenty fewer innings, and almost doubled up Norman’s Stuff with a 13.

Errrr, I’m going to have to give this one to the Tigers. I’m too sabermetrically inclined to delude myself otherwise.

Scorecard – 1975 Reds 6, 1984 Tigers 6

So for the first time, we’re tied. I kind of figured this would happen once we got to the pitchers. You can read Brian’s analysis of Juan Berenguer at Tigerblog.

Jack Billingham was one of Sparky’s workhorses. Despite having an ERA+ of only 94, he won 19 games in two different seasons, and 15 in 1975. His best season by far was 1973, when he went 19-10, pitched 293 1/3 innings, and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. He led the league in innings pitched, games started (40), and shutouts (7).

In 1975, he was good but not great. He did win fifteen, but his ERA+ of 87 was hardly spectacular. He walked almost as many batters as he struck out, and his WHIP was a fairly high 1.447. Nothing to write home about, but he was second on the team in innings pitched (coming in less then three innings behind Gary Nolan), so he gave Sparky quite a few quality innings. Let’s take a look at the rest of his stat line:

Innings Pitched 208
Wins 15
Losses 10
ERA 4.11
ERA+ 87
WHIP 1.447
H/9 9.61
BB/9 3.29
SO/9 3.42
HR/9 0.95
Pitching Runs Above Replacement 30
Stuff -5

The Stuff rating of -5 and the high WHIP are the biggest concern. Regardless, Milt Wilcox has him beat in every category except innings pitched. so chalk this one up for the Tigers.

Scorecard 1975 Reds 6, 1984 Tigers 5

You can read Brian’s analysis of Milt Wilcox over at Tigerblog.

First off, I want to thank JD over at Reds Daily for the kind words about my first All Decade team. Thanks to him, more people came to the website then on any other day in the short existance of the blog. Hopefully you’ll keep coming back.

Don Gullett was a man on fire in 1975. He was held to only 22 starts because he caught a line drive on his thumb in mid-June. He had nineteen decisions in those 22 starts, going 15-4 on the season. He finished fifth in the Cy Young that year, his best finish ever. Over his career, he amassed a .686 winning percentage (109-50), which is good for eighth all time.

So where does Gullett fall out numbers wise? Let’s take a look….

Innings Pitched 159 2/3
Wins 15
Losses 4
ERA 2.42
ERA+ 259
WHIP 1.146
H/9 7.16
BB/9 3.16
SO/9 5.52
HR/9 0.62
Pitching Runs Above Replacement 51
Stuff 16

Brian tried to hedge himself by hesitantly deferring to Gullett, but in my opinion, it’s not even close. He had a better WHIP, ERA, and ERA+ then Petry did. If Gullett had a full season, he very well might have won 20 games, and won the Cy Young.

Scorecard 1975 Reds 6, 1984 Tiger 4

You can read Brian’s analysis of Dan Petry at Tigerblog.

I know Gary Nolan wasn’t the number one. Don Gullett was the opening day starter. But Brian and I decided to put the pitchers up head to head based on how they performed during the season. I had a hard time choosing between Nolan and Billingham, but Nolan put up slightly better numbers. Nolan will be going up against Jack Morris.

Nolan’s career mirrored a guy I saw a lot of here in Detroit in the late 1980s, Frank Tanana. Basically a fast ball pitcher, Gary Nolan lost most of 1973 and all of 1974 to injury. When he came back, he relied more on a changeup and curveball then he did heat (Thank you Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers).

And his comeback season was quite a success. His strikeouts went way, way down, but he hardly walked anyone. Let’s take a look at the numbers:

Innings Pitched 210 2/3
Wins 15
Losses 9
WHIP 1.097
ERA 3.16
Hits/9 8.63
BB/9 1.24
SO/9 3.16
HR/9 0.77
Pitching Runs Above Replacement 55
Stuff 4

This one is really a lot closer then I thought. Nolan has a better ERA and WHIP, but he was less durable and struck out fewer batters. Morris’ stuff rating of 14 is a good ten points better then Nolan’s, but Nolan had a better ERA+ (114 vs. 109).

I guess what it comes down to is, who would I want on the mound? Unfortunately for the home team, that’d be Jack Morris. Sigh.

Scorecard – 1975 Reds 5, 1984 Tigers 4

We’re almost back to being even. You can read Brian’s analysis of Jack Morris over at Tigerblog once he quits whining about Lou Whitaker not being in the Hall of Fame.

Finally some controversy. So far, each of our little sub-debates have been very clear cut. But Ken Griffey (the senior vareity) against Kirk Gibson, in some respects, is a tight match up.

1975 was Ken Griffey’s first full season, and like the other Reds on the team, he had a nice season. He finished just over the .300 mark at .302, and was tenth in the league in OBP at .391. Power was Griffey’s biggest fault, or rather the lack of. He did have nine triples, but he knocked out only four homers and had only fifteen doubles.

1976 was Griffey’s best year, and would have given Kirk Gibson more competition. He finished second for the batting title with a .336 batting average.

So let’s look at the tale of the tape:

Runs 95
Homeruns 4
RBIs 46
Average .305
OBP .391
Slg .402
Runs Created 73
OPS+ 119
Batting Runs Above Replacement 36
Fielding Runs Above Replacement 6
Equivalent Average .294
Wins Above Replacement Player 4.7

Griffey hit a little better, and scored a few more runs, but Gibby had a pretty impressive season at the plate. Both were below average fielders. When all things are looking equal, I usually look at WARP, OPS+ and EqAvg, and Gibby is marginally better in each category. Sigh.

Scorecard – 1975 Reds 5, 1984 Tigers 3

Next are the pitchers. Brian told me he’d get his response up before he left town so you can read it over at Tigerblog. I’ll be up north, and probably won’t be at a computer very much, so if you don’t hear from me, have a great weekend.

I hate losing, and no matter how I spin this one, I can’t put Cesar Geronimo over Chester Lemon. Despite being yet another Red’s gold glove fielder, Geronimo spent most of his seasons below an OPS+ of 100 then above it. In 1975, he had an equalized average of only .258, and a meager Batting Runs Above Replacement of 16. Toss in a pathetic slugging percentage of .363, and you get where I’m going. Geronimo was a slappy at the plate, and as good as he was defensively, Lemon was just as good. It’s just Lemon was whole lot better at the plate.

So let’s take a look at the tale of the tape:

Runs 69
Homeruns 6
RBIs 53
Average .257
OBP .327
Slg% .363
Runs Created 58
OPS+ 90
Batting Runs Above Replacement 16
Fielding Runs Above Replacement 46
Equalized Average .258
Wins Above Replacement Player 6.9

Other then FRAR, it’s a clean sweep, and that difference was marginal.

Scorecard – 1975 Reds 5, 1984 Tigers 2

Brian was nice enough to tell me that a generous reader bought us a copy of Diamond Mind. If you want to know why we’ve been looking to get it (and how we’re going about garnering the funds), click here. Brian told me that with the money he makes from the ads, he’ll now use to buy season discs, and maybe we can have some additional fun with that (like pitting the 1975 Reds against the 1976 Reds).

Also, you can read Brian’s analysis of Chet Lemon at Tigerblog when it’s completed. Apparantly he’s been working on some secret project, and might not get to it for a couple of days.

In the meantime, check out Reds Daily. JD Arney has done a fantastic look at the Red’s top 40 prospects. This is our future here.

1975 was George Foster’s coming out season. After a full and mediocre 1972, he played only bits and pieces of 1973 and 1974 before busting out in the 1975. He was still two years away from his best season, where he was the only player in the 1970s or 1980s to hit 50 homers in a season.

How good was he in 1975? He was fifth in the league in Slugging, and tenth in the league in OPS and OPS+. The ironic thing is, most of the people he finished behind were his own teamates.

So let’s look at the tale of the tape:

Runs 71
Homeruns 23
RBIs 78
Avg. .300
OBP .356
Slg% .518
Runs Created 85
OPS+ 139
Batting Runs Above Replacement 42
Fielding Runs Above Replacement 31
Equalized Average .304
Wins Above Replacement Player 8.1

Larry Herdon was a great role player for the Tigers, but he was just that. His 1984 season was pretty average, and as you can tell above, George Foster was well above average. Had he played on another team, he probably would have gotten more MVP consideration then he did.

So the Tiger’s streak ends….at one.

Scorecard 1975 Reds 5, 1984 Tigers 1

You can read Brian’s analysis at Tigerblog when he decides he wants to face reality.

Dave Concepcion had a fine career for the Reds. The nine time All-Star racked up over 2,300 hits, and won five gold glove awards. The tandem of Concepcion and Morgan is just as good, if not better, then the double play combo of Lou Whitaker and Alan Trammell.

But for the first time so far, the Reds are out-matched. Yes, Concepcion did win a gold glove. But so did Tram. And Concepcion really had a pretty mediocre season with the bat. Let’s take a look”

Runs 62
Homeruns 5
RBIs 49
Average .274
OBP .326
SLG% .353
Runs Created 58
OPS+ 88
Batting Runs Above Replacement 19
Fielding Runs Above Replacement 48
Equalized Average .262
Wins Above Replacement Player 7.4

The OPS+ of 88 really tells the story here. Concepcion had only 29 extra base hits (Tram had more doubles alone), and his equalized average of .262 is quite plain. The only statisitcal category that Concepcion took was FRAR.

So I concede. Tram wins, and the Reds now have a single blemish on their record.

Scorecard – 1975 Reds 4, 1984 Tigers 1

Brian told me we’re about a third of our way to our goal in raising enough money to buy Diamond Mind. If you want to help (we all know you do), check out what I’m talking about here. Or here. Or even here.

You can read Brian’s analysis at Tigerblog, once he finds time to stop gloating about his victory and actually writes it up.

Hall of Famer number four??

Well, not quite. Pete Rose played like a hall of famer, but because of his, um, extracurricular activities, he hasn’t been reinstated to the game.

But Charlie Hustle had a fine season. He won the World Series MVP, Finished fifth in the MVP voting, was second to teammate Joe Morgan in OBP, and led the league in runs scored. Oh, and he also led the league with 47 doubles. So let’s take a look at the tale of the tape.

Runs 112
Home Runs 7
RBIs 74
Average .317
OBP .406
SLG% .432
Runs Created 113
OPS+ 132
Batting Runs Above Replacement 60
Fielding Runs Above Replacement 13
Equalized Average .306
Wins Above Replacement Player 8.0

Howard Johnson hit 12 homers in 1984, and that’s the only blemish when comparing the stats. But we all know Pete wasn’t a homerun hitter.

So another easy one With the win, the Reds now have what I consider an insurmountable lead. For whatever reason, Brian has decided to press on, and further humiliate himself. And he’s even balking about picking up Diamond Mind to put the matter to rest. You can convince him to buy the simulation by helping me with our little fund raiser. The details are here.

Scoredcard – 1975 Reds 4, 1984 Tigers 0

You can read Brian’s analysis of Howard Johnson at Tigerblog when he finds the time to defend himself.

Let’s move on to Hall of Famer number three.

Comparing Joe Morgan in 1975 and in 1976 is kind of like comparing the Reds in 1975 and 1976. It’s also like comparing Star Wars to the Lord of the Rings. You really can’t go wrong no matter which one you choose. Lou Whitaker was a fine player in his time, but Joe Morgan is simply the best of all time at his position. He won the NL MVP in 1975 (and 1976), and he led the league in OPS, walks, and OBP. And if you like defense, he walked away with a gold glove, his third of five consecutive gold gloves.

So let’s take a look at the tale of the tape:

Runs 107
Home Runs 17
RBIs 94
Average .327
OBP .466
Slg% .508
Runs Created 118
OPS+ 169
Batting Runs Above Replacement 86
Fielding Runs Above Replacement 50
Equalized Average .354
Wins Above Replacement Player 14.6

This really is too easy. Joe Morgan, like Tony Perez, pulls off the clean sweep. If you take away Lance Parrish’s homerun total vs. Johnny Bench’s, the 1975 Reds have beat their 1984 Tiger’s counterpart in EVERY, SINGLE STATISTIC!!!!!!

Score Card – 1975 Reds 3, 1984 Tigers ZERO

As much as I’d like to see this reign of terror continue, I’m still convinced Brian will balk at conceding defeat until it’s proven with the simulation. If you want to see me completely crush his will, you can help out by going to my past post here. It explains how you can help us raise money to buy Diamond Mind, and prove on the field (or computer) of battle that the 1975 Reds would have mopped the floor with the 1984 Tigers.

You can read Brian’s analysis of Lou Whitaker at Tigerblog.

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