I just got my 2005 Baseball Prospectus book in the mail today. I’m like an eight year old on Christmas.

Of course where else would I go but the Reds section. In the narrative they talk about the injury problems, and how they overspent on a couple of mediocre starting pitchers. Nothing too wild.

They expect Sean Casey to regress back to the numbers he put up in 2003.

Adam Dunn is projected to be a little better then his 2002 season, but he has a 56% breakout rate. If you add 20% more homers, that puts him at 42. Not too shabby, although I’m not quite sure if that’s how you do it. 20% more VORP and he’s at 58 or so, which is a little short of 2004. It will take him a while to burn off that 2003 season.

Edwin Encarnacion projects very nicely. Fortunately he’ll get one more year down in the minors to fine tune his game. Next year, at the ripe age of 23, he should be the Reds starting third baseman.

But you should buy the book. Baseball Prospectus is a must read.

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