When I said the Reds need to sign arms, I didn’t mean just any arm. The Reds signed Paul Wilson to a two year, $8.2 million dollar deal. Good deal? Bad deal? Who cares?

My first big problem is, if the Reds don’t go out and sign a top flight starter, Paul Wilson will be near the front of the rotation. Yes, he went 11-6, but even if you look at his ERA of 4.36 and his WHIP of 1.39, you find that Wilson should be a fifth starter, maybe fourth at best.

First off, if we look at his player card over at Baseball Prospectus, his DW (Delta Wins) for 2004 is one. So basically he won one more game then he should have based on his numbers. His PRAA (Pitching Runs Above Average) was 3, so independant of defense, he was marginally above average. And finally, his Stuff rating is 4.

What does all of this mean!!!! Basically that he’s a pretty average pitcher, so $4 million a year for an average starter isn’t all that bad. The problem I have is, he could be the number one starter this year. Meaning it’s going to be another rough and tough year for Reds fans.

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